Up until the early 2010s, most research on employment programs that were designed for people with low incomes showed a similar pattern: The programs helped people get jobs, but those jobs did not pay well and people did not increase their earnings over time. Studies of sector-based training programs—which go beyond traditional training programs by preparing job seekers for high-quality employment in industries with strong local demand and advancement opportuni­ties—are breaking this pattern. There is growing research showing that these programs can increase credential receipt, employment in the sector they target, and earnings. With these findings, the workforce development field has increasingly adopted the use of these sector pro­grams, and federal workforce legislation—including the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act of 2014—often now requires their use.

There is more to be learned, however, about whether and how these programs increase earnings and career progression over time. This report presents long-term impacts from a randomized controlled trial of WorkAdvance, a sectoral and advancement-focused workforce training model that was implemented by four nonprofit providers. Launched in 2011, WorkAdvance provides short-term training for specific sectors in which there is strong local demand and opportunity for career advancement. Previous reports showed that the WorkAdvance programs produced some meaningful short- and medium-term gains in employment, earnings, and related outcomes.

The 10-year findings shown in this report address a more ambitious question: Can short-term sec­tor programs generate earnings gains a full decade later? To answer this question, the analysis focuses on two prespecified confirmatory outcomes in Year 10: (1) total annual earnings and (2) the proportion of individuals earning $45,000 or more, both drawn from administrative data in the National Directory of New Hires. Because the study followed multiple cohorts, Year 10 cov­ers 2021 through 2023 and coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented economic shock that affected sectors in different ways and no doubt affected the economic outcomes of the people in the study.

Findings

• In Year 10, the WorkAdvance program at St. Nicks Alliance increased average earnings by 32 percent and increased the proportion of people who earned $45,000 or more by 7 percentage points.
• The other three WorkAdvance programs did not have an impact on either confirmatory outcome in Year 10.

Overall, the findings from this 10-year evaluation suggest that sector programs are a promising way to help individuals increase their earnings and advance in their careers. All four programs increased earnings at some point—the Towards Employment and Madison Strategies Group pro­grams in Year 2, the Per Scholas program in Years 2 to 5 and 7 to 8, and the St. Nicks Alliance program in Years 8 to 10—leaving people better off overall than they would have been without the programs.

The differences in long-term earnings between programs underscore that sector programs like WorkAdvance can produce sustained economic gains, but they are probably sensitive to shifting economic conditions. These gains may not persist without additional sector-specific approach­es—such as targeted reengagement or additional skills training years after initial participation—particularly in fast-evolving industries. Even as the WorkAdvance evaluation concludes, ongoing research—including research stemming directly from this study—on how to refine sector programs and maximize their potential continues to build evidence on how these programs can foster lasting economic mobility and resilience.