Sectoral training programs train people for jobs in specific industries where there is strong local demand and the opportunity for career advancement. Several sectoral training models for jobs in technology have proven effective in improving long-term earnings for workers with low incomes.^[1] But many people still do not have access to these programs because the programs may be too far from home or too costly. The $100 million Google Career Certificates Fund, announced in February 2022, provides funding for training providers to support 20,000 learners. The providers combine Google Career Certificates, which offer online instruction in sector-specific skills, and outcomes-based loans, in which learners are only required to pay for training and related costs if they find jobs above a certain income threshold.

MDRC’s new study of the initiative will estimate this combination's economic effects on learners, and will examine how training providers make use of online training courses and financing, how learners experience the programs, and how learners fare in the labor market. This brief describes the potential of the Google Career Certificates Fund initiative and the sectoral training field more broadly in facilitating equitable access to career paths in technology.

The Model

The Google Career Certificates Fund supports program models with three core features:

• Integration of the online Google Career Certificates courses with nationally recognized, nonprofit, sectoral training programs. The certificates include ones on IT Support, Data Analytics, Project Management, Cybersecurity, and User Experience Design. They are available on Coursera, a global online training course provider.
• Delivery of or referrals to supportive services, including help with résumé writing and interview preparation, career coaching, access to public benefits or other forms of income support, and direct connections to employers.
• An outcomes-based loan, which is interest-free and requires no repayment until learners secure jobs above a specified income threshold. The loan is meant to be more accessible and affordable than other financial aid alternatives.

Designed and managed by Social Finance, the initiative supports well-known training providers.^[2] MDRC is conducting a rigorous evaluation of the initiative to assess its effectiveness in promoting economic mobility for populations historically underrepresented in the technology sector.

What Is Known About Sectoral Training and What This Evaluation Can Add

The Google Career Certificates Fund initiative can be considered a sectoral training approach, which, as mentioned above, can lead to significant and meaningful wage gains. These earnings gains occur because participants enter into jobs in industries and occupations that pay better, and because training providers maintain strong partnerships with employers. Indeed, training providers that focus not only on employment but on placing learners into high-growth, high-wage sectors—for example, the technology sector—have been most effective at producing long-term wage gains.^[3]

The $100 million investment from Google should allow nonprofit training providers that have been operating at a relatively small scale (compared with for-profit boot camp providers or institutions of higher education) to expand their program operations, reach more learners, and continue providing important career coaching and supportive services nationwide. MDRC’s evaluation will generate evidence in three important areas where, to date, evidence is limited: how to improve access to high-quality, sector-based training that leads to sector-based jobs; how to ease the affordability of training for learners; and how to build longer-term sustainability for training providers so that they can grow while retaining their effective practices.

Does the Initiative Increase Training Accessibility Through Remote Training?

Little is known about the efficacy of remote training. MDRC’s evaluation has an opportunity to address two important questions related to it. One is whether a program that combines online training with additional services sees more people complete the course and find employment in the sector than a self-paced training option. Google Career Certificates courses on Coursera are available to the general public for a nominal fee through a standard Coursera subscription. However, self-paced learners who start an online course on their own are highly unlikely to complete it. Estimates of course completion rates on Coursera range from less than 4 percent to about 30 percent, depending on how an enrolled learner or course completion is defined.^[4]

The Fund’s model provides free Coursera licenses to nonprofit training providers, which already provide coaching, additional classroom instruction and training, service referrals, and job-placement support to help participants pursue entry-level jobs in the target sector. The programs may provide structure, pacing, and support to improve course completion rates.

The second question relates to the efficacy of remote services themselves (outside of the online courses). The global COVID-19 pandemic forced many training providers to provide their program services remotely.^[5] They have since resumed in-person training activities, but have also continued to make use of their remote capabilities in a variety of ways. Training providers participating in the evaluation are delivering services fully remotely, in hybrid formats, and fully in-person. Remote activities can also happen either asynchronously (that is, not at the same time as coaches or other learners) or synchronously (that is, live, but in a virtual setting). Little is known about the implications of these different formats. Because the training providers in this initiative use a variety of program formats, the study will be able to explore which modes of delivery allow more people to receive training, and whether any provide training more equitably than others:

• Does the initiative expand training access to more learners interested in technology who might not be able to attend on-site training? For example, these learners might lack transportation or have childcare needs or other family obligations.
• Can the model provide better access to the technology sector among people who have been historically excluded from it? These groups include Black and Indigenous people and other people of color, women, veterans and their caretakers, and people without higher-education degrees. In the past, successful training providers have used their strong relationships with employers to make connections between employers and trainees. These relationships and in-person connections may have served to overcome structural barriers to employment, such as racial and gender discrimination. It remains uncertain whether these connections will be as strong as remote training and work becomes more prevalent.

Does the Initiative Increase Training Affordability for Learners?

For many learners, retraining to enter a new career is costly. Prospective learners face steep costs including tuition, class supplies, and transportation, not to mention the balancing act of reducing work hours to focus on courses. Most learners who undertake sectoral training programs outside of educational institutions do not have access to traditional financial aid such as Pell Grants and student loans.^[6] The Fund’s program model addresses this challenge by providing outcomes-based loans. Since the training programs are short (ranging from just under 6 months to 15 months), the total cost is lower than the sticker price of attending college: less than $8,000. The outcomes-based loan carries no interest, and payment obligations can be deferred until learners begin a job that pays more than $40,000 a year. Training providers offer the loan to cover tuition payments or living expenses.

Outcomes-based loans are similar in structure to income-share agreements, which have received a lot of attention recently as a new way to finance postsecondary education or training.^[7] Both financing instruments provide money to learners in exchange for a share of their future income. Importantly, outcomes-based loans are consumer loans, so payment activities are reported to the three major credit agencies. Thus, the loans can have implications on credit scores: Learners can establish or increase their scores if they are meeting their monthly loan obligations, or they could reduce their scores if they do not make monthly payments or apply for deferments once their loan-repayment periods begin.

The evaluation will assess whether this loan product can help more learners persist in their training activities:

• Does the offer of an outcomes-based loan help learners afford training that they otherwise could not?
• Does the loan help learners to complete their training programs and start careers in technology?
• How does participating in Fund-sponsored training affect learners’ credit scores and financial well-being? Can the financial model narrow the gap in financial wellness (as gauged using measures of income, banking, and material hardship) that has persisted across racial and ethnic lines?^[8]

Does the Initiative Provide Increased Sustainability for Training Providers?

Effective workforce training is expensive. Past evaluations have shown costs ranging from $6,000 to over $30,000 per learner.^[9] Costs include not only instruction and coaching in essential technology-related skills and career preparation, but also additional support to help students complete their training. Higher-cost programs tend to have paid work-based learning opportunities associated with them. The initiative aims to train over 20,000 learners. The Google Career Certificates Fund’s up-front $100 million investment would not cover the full costs for all those learners, but if the outcomes-based loan works as designed, program graduates’ loan repayments would then be reinvested into the Fund to cover future learners’ training costs.

The evaluation will thus explore whether the initiative serves as a more sustainable operational and financing structure for training providers in the long term:

• Does the initiative help training providers sustain and strengthen their programs?
• How can the combination of remote training opportunities and financing tools facilitate successful outcomes for both current and future learners?

What’s Next?

The first publication with early research findings is planned for 2025. To learn more in the meantime, reach out to the evaluation’s project director, Edith Yang, at edith.yang@mdrc.org.